Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |